Experts
Tough times require tough choices
Of course, there are also many other ongoing and related challenges for oil markets, such as: the uncertain prospects for the global economy; excessive speculation and the role of financial markets; the impact of geopolitics; advances in technology and their impacts on exploration and production and environmental concerns.
I would like to touch briefly on the environmental challenge, following December’s ‘Paris Agreement’ to reduce climate change.
We welcome the agreement. The challenges related to the environment and climate change are a concern for us all. We all live in the same world. In this regard, we need to be practical, realistic and equitable.
Yes, we need to continue to develop renewables. But they cannot be seen as a replacement for fossil fuels in the coming decades. Combined, oil and gas are still expected to supply over 50 per cent of the global energy mix by 2040.
Yes, we need to continue to use energy more efficiently. But we need to remember that some people still have no access to modern energy services.
Yes, there are environmental concerns regarding fossil fuels. But there are ways that these can be met and overcome. We need to look at all the options available to us.
It is important to recall that the previous high oil-price cycle was the outcome of a lack of investment in more supply. And the low oil-price environment we find ourselves in today is the result of too much investment in high-cost production during that previous period.
It underscores that the best way forward is for all industry stakeholders to continually work towards achieving more balance for our industry. Not only in the short-term, but in the long-term as well. This will help us deliver a sustainable energy future; for all producers and for all consumers too.
There is no doubt that the industry will come through this current cycle. Market forces, as well as cooperation among producers, will eventually lead to the return of stability.
We already see some signs that supply and demand fundamentals will start to correct themselves in 2016. Global oil demand growth this year is expected to increase by around 1.3 million barrels a day, and non-OPEC oil supply is anticipated to contract by around 660,000 barrels a day.
But as I have already highlighted, we need to see the stock overhang reduced too. This is now central to the return of a balanced market.
Tough times require tough choices. I know the industry can make these. It has in the past, and I am sure it will do this time. It is why I remain optimistic about the industry’s future.
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