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Drones, Delays and Disputes: Aramco’s Rocky Road to $2 Trillion

(Bloomberg) –Saudi Arabia and investors have long been at odds about the value of the kingdom’s crown jewel. After a four-year journey that’s been marked with delays, disagreements over valuation and devastating attacks on Aramco’s oil facilities, the kingdom’s de-facto ruler hit his target on Monday: a $2 trillion company.
Here’s how the world’s biggest IPO unfolded:

2016

  • Jan. 7: Then-Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman tells the Economist he’s considering an initial public offering of state-oil monopoly Saudi Arabian Oil Co. The next day, the world’s biggest crude producer confirms it’s studying a potential share sale.
    Related: Shock, Laughter Greet Plan for Saudi Arabia’s Record Oil IPO
  • April: The prince says the IPO will involve selling a stake of up to 5% in Aramco’s parent company and that the share sale will happen by the end of 2018. He says the company could be worth more than $2.5 trillion.
  • May: Saudi Aramco chairman Khalid Al-Falih is made oil minister, replacing Ali Al-Naimi, who’s held the job since 1995.

2017

  • February: Oil-industry estimates show Aramco may be worth a lot less than Mohammed bin Salman’s $2 trillion estimate.
  • November: Prominent Saudis, including Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, are arrested in what’s billed as an anti-corruption drive. Many are held in Riyadh’s Ritz-Carlton.

2018

  • January: Saudi Arabia says it has agreed settlements of more than $100 billion with those held.
  • April: Bloomberg reports details of Aramco’s financial accounts for the first time, showing it’s the world’s most profitable company with almost no debt and rock-bottom production costs.
  • July: Aramco says it will buy a controlling stake in the kingdom’s chemical giant Saudi Basic Industries Co. from the sovereign wealth fund for $70 billion, meaning another potential delay.
  • October: Jamal Khashoggi, a critic of the Saudi regime and Washington Post columnist, is murdered in the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul.

In an interview with Bloomberg that month, the prince says the IPO will happen before 2021 and sticks to his $2 trillion valuation.

Read: Saudi Aramco Raises $25.6 Billion in World’s Biggest IPO

2019

  • July: Aramco restarts work on the IPO and sounds banks out.
  • Sept. 3: Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih, long seen as an opponent of the IPO, is removed as Aramco chairman and replaced by Yasir Al-Rummayan, head of the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund and a key lieutenant of the crown prince.
  • Sept. 14: Aeriel attacks on Aramco’s largest oil-processing plant at Abqaiq knock out about half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production.
  • Oct. 17: Just three days before a planned intention to float announcement, Aramco postpones, saying it needs more time to prepare third-quarter results.
  • Nov. 3: Aramco announces intention to float on Riyadh’s stock exchange. Banks release their research on Aramco, but their views on the company’s valuation range from as little as $1.1 trillion to as much as $2.5 trillion.
  • Nov. 17: At a late night meeting in Riyadh, Aramco’s leadership decides to scale back the IPO to what’s essentially a local offering. After terrible feedback from international money managers, the sale won’t be marketed outside the Middle East. Just 1.5% of the company will be sold at a valuation of up to $1.7 trillion.
  • Dec. 5: Aramco raises $25.6 billion from world’s biggest IPO, valuing the firm at $1.7 trillion.
  • Dec 11: The company lists on the Saudi stock exchange. Shares climb by the daily limit of 10% on debut valuing the company at a record $1.88 trillion.
  • Dec. 17: After four days of trading, shares close at 38 riyals ($10.13), giving the company a market value of $2.03 trillion.

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