The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast a global oil market oversupply of 4 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, citing the recent increase in crude oil supplies from the Middle East and the Americas. It is noted that this increasingly underscores the need for market change.

Toril Bosoni, head of the IEA’s Oil Industry and Markets Division, said that the global oil market may be at a turning point, with signs of a significant oversupply emerging.

The overall oil surplus averaged 1.9 million bpd during the first nine months of the year. Crude oil prices remained largely resilient, with inventory builds concentrated in regions with less price-shaping influence, particularly crude oil in China and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the United States.

Crude oil inventory levels in key pricing hubs remained relatively low. Global oil inventories rose by 225 million barrels during the first eight months of 2025, reaching a four-year high of 7.9 billion barrels.

More than a third of this increase was recorded in Chinese crude inventories, which are now 30 percent above their 2019 level.

China’s large stockpiles were supported this year by a new energy law aimed at improving its energy security. With limited storage capacity in the country’s strategic petroleum reserves, oil companies are now required to increase their oil inventories in their commercial storage facilities, effectively positioning private companies as the government’s long-term strategic partners in oil storage.

Meanwhile, US liquefied natural gas (LNG) inventories increased by 67 million barrels of oil equivalent, significantly above their seasonal average, as trade tensions disrupted sales to Chinese petrochemical plants.

Elsewhere, markets remain tighter. For example, crude oil inventories in advanced economies fell by 10.4 million barrels over the past five months, while crude oil inventories in emerging and developing economies outside China rose by only 5.5 million barrels over the same period.