Oil prices edged up on Monday after a breakdown in diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran that some speculated could result in supply restrictions, although gains were tempered by data showing some of Asia’s largest economies are struggling.
Fellow Gulf producer Bahrain said on Monday it too would cut ties with Iran.
Benchmark Brent crude futures were last up 76 cents on the day at $38.04 a barrel at 1115 GMT, near an intraday high of $38.50.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were up 48 cents at $37.52.
“It’s very confrontational. I don’t think that’s enough to derail (the broader lifting of sanctions), but it is prompting a few more questions about what would the timing of the return of Iranian barrels look like,” Energy Aspects’ Mallinson said.
“The statements at the weekend by (Iranian oil officials) that Iran would only increase production at the level of the market can absorb seems to be a shift in rhetoric.”
Iran plans to raise output by half a million to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) post lifting of sanctions, although Iranian officials
said they did not plan to flood the market with its crude if there was no demand for it.
Iran’s oil exports have fallen to around 1 million bpd, down from a peak pre-sanctions peak of almost 3 million bpd in 2011.
The oil price surrendered earlier gains that boosted futures by as much as 2 per cent after data showed Chinese factory activity shrank for a 10th straight month, prompting a 7-per cent fall on Chinese stock markets and for trading to be suspended.
“Iran may decide to take more of a hardline stance against the Saudi-oriented policy of not cutting production. So far, they’ve been going along with it, but this renewed political vigour may prompt them to change a bit,” CMC Markets analyst Jasper Lawler said.
“Really, this is still a bear market and people are just selling the bounce because (the clash) is not going to affect production. Obviously it’s just tensions in the region.”