Investment

Gold Prices: Triggering Factors For A Lasting Rally

Gold has indeed struggled to show its value as a haven investment this year, with prices marking their lowest settlement since the2021 spring. A key index that tracks the performance of gold mining stocks significantly slumped to a more than two-year low.

Even so, it may be safe to bet that the metal will prove once again just how precious it is to investors—under the right conditions.

Rising interest rates and strength in the dollar contributed to gold’s drop to $1,700.20 an ounce on July 20, the lowest finish since March 30, 2021, while the NYSE Arca Gold Miners index recently fell to 701.80 intraday, its weakest rate since April 2020.

Gold GC00, 0.22% GCQ22, 0.22% has spent the past couple of years stuck in a trading range, with the upper $1,600s on the lower end and stiff resistance just under and above $2,000—and that is likely the range the market will continue to see as the year concludes, says Peter Spina, president of GoldSeek.com.

However, an indication that the U.S. Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate hikes would trigger a huge response in gold prices, he says, potentially bolstering prices toward the top end of their trading range or higher.

Red-hot U.S. inflation numbers have produced fears of more aggressive interest rates, raising the risk of a recession. The June U.S. inflation reading showed an increase to approximately a 41-year high of 9.1%, backing expectations for more interest-rate hikes by the Fed.