The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Oil Market Report for December states that the indications of slowing growth in the present quarter suggest an increase of 1.2 mb/d demand in 2016. The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly IEA publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead.
This follows the validation of the recorded indicators of the past two OMRs for the current quarter which shows growth reducing to 1.3 mb/d as compared to the previous year. The resulting annual growth of 1.8 mb/d for 2015 is led by China, the United States, India and Europe. The 50 kb/d increase in the global supply in November was due to the marginally higher OPEC crude output. Non-OPEC supply in November was 58.5 mb/d whereas the annual growth decelerated to below 300 kb/d from the figure of 2.2 mb/d at the beginning of 2015.
OPEC crude moved up to 31.73 mb/d due to the record production from Iraq and higher supply from Kuwait, which counterbalanced the losses from the African members.
Global refinery runs climbed by 1.4 mb/d in November to 79.9 mb/d as the maintenance season came to a close. OMR states that the margins remained healthy in November, despite being lower in the USA, supported by gasoline and naphtha. The first half of December however saw product cracks and margins taking a hit.
